Time for something different, as I’m going to wrap up this series of Premier League predictions – not because I only got 1 out of 10 picks correct in the week before the international break (which when you consider the week before that, I got an incredible 9 out of 10) but I am working on a new concept on a sister website.
Over the past month or so, I have been working on a project that looks at predictive modelling and I am tasking myself with whether or not I can build a model that can offer up more correct predictions than incorrect ones and therefore move away from gut instinct alone.
In doing this, it also means that I can test and learn alone the way and not only that, there is more of a purpose to the predictions than apart from just listing them on a weekly basis, with nothing in the way of reward for my efforts.
Basically, I just want to remove the use of dead time.
However, the Premier League predictions will still be served up on a weekly basis but now the emotion will be stripped out of the pick, as instead of using my own bias and thinking “the big must beat the small team” I’m going to use data driven betting instead.
The reason behind this, is that I can look at this in a pure win/loss record and not bemoaning the fact that another of the ‘Big Six’ usually Spurs has fallen by the wayside once again. Not only that, but I can also try new methods throughout the season, rather than relying on a gut feel that seems to be wrong more often than not
The website is called: Dan The Stat Man and I will be working on more leagues along the way – including a Russian Premier League project that is already underway, so please check this out each week instead.
Thanks for reading. Dan.